Department of Economics
1285 University of Oregon
Eugene, OR 97403-1285, U.S.A.
Office phone: (541)-346-4662
Office fax: (541)-346-1243
email: gevans "at" uoregon "dot" edu
Personal Data: U.S. Citizen, Married, Two Children, aged 19 and 21.
University of California, Berkeley, B.A., Mathematics, 1974, Phi Beta Kappa.
Balliol College, Oxford University, B.A., Economics and Politics (P.P.E.), 1972.
University of California, Berkeley, M.A., Statistics, 1976.
University of California, Berkeley, Ph.D., Economics, 1980.
From September 1994, Professor, John B. Hamacher Chair of Economics, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA, and (since September, 2005) College of Arts and Sciences Distinguished Professor.
From Oct. 2007, Part Time Professor of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Scotland.
1993-1994, Professor, George Watson's and Daniel Stewart's Chair of Political Economy, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
1987-1992, Lecturer (1984-5 and 1987-1989), promoted to Senior Lecturer (1989-1992) and Reader (1992), Department of Economics, London School of Economics, London, UK
1991 - 1992, Visiting Professor, School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
1981 - 1987, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University, CA.
1978 - 1981, Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Stirling, Scotland.
1974 - 1978, Teaching Assistant, Research Assistant, Acting Instructor, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
"The Stability of Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models", in Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: "Rational Expectations" Examined, ed. by R. Frydman and E. S. Phelps. Cambridge University Press, 1983, pp. 69-94.
"Tests for Rationality of the Carlson-Parkin Inflation Expectations Data " (with R. Gulamani), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46, February 1984, pp. 1-19.
"Bottlenecks and the Phillips Curve: A Disaggregated Keynesian Model of Inflation, Output and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Vol. 95, June 1985, pp. 345-357.
"Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. C, no. 403, November 1985, pp. 1217-1234.
"A Complete Characterization of ARMA Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Studies, Vol. LIII, April 1986, pp. 227-239.
"Selection Criteria for Models with Non-uniqueness", Journal of Monetary Economics, September 1986, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 147-157.
"A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84", American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 4, September 1986, pp. 621-636.
"The Structure of ARMA Solutions to a General Linear Model with Rational Expectations", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 11, 1987, pp. 79-91.
"The Conduct of Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Unemployment", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 21, No.4, November 1989, pp. 498-507.
"Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985", Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 4, No.3, July-September 1989, pp. 213-237.
"A Measure of the U.S. Output Gap", Economics Letters, vol. 29, 1989, pp. 285-289.
"The Fragility of Sunspots and Bubbles", Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.23, 1989, pp. 297-317.
"Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices", American Economic Review, vol. 81, no. 4, September 1991, pp. 922-930.
"On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models", (with Seppo Honkapohja), International Economic Review, vol. 33, no. 1, February 1992, pp.1 -14.
"Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics" (with Garey Ramey), American Economic Review, vol. 82, no. 1, March 1992, pp. 207-224.
"Learning and Economic Fluctuations: Using Fiscal Policy to Steer Expectations" (with Seppo Honkapohja), European Economic Review, Vol. 37, 1993, pp. 595-602.
"Adaptive Forecasts, Hysteresis and Endogenous Fluctuations" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1993, No. 1, pp. 3-13.
"On the Preservation of Deterministic Cycles when some Agents Perceive Them to be Random Fluctuations" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Thomas J. Sargent), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 17, 1993, pp. 705-721.
"Rationalizability, Strong Rationality and Expectational Stability" (with Roger Guesnerie), Games and Economic Behavior, Special Issue on Learning Dynamics, Vol. 5, October 1993, pp. 632-646.
"Sectoral Imbalance and Unemployment in the United Kingdom", Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 45, no. 3, July 1993, pp. 440-456.
"Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle" (with Lucrezia Reichlin), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 33, 1994, pp. 233-254.
"Convergence of Least Squares Learning to a Non-Stationary Equilibrium" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economics Letters, Vol. 46, 1994, pp. 131-136.
"On the Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 64, No. 1, October 1994, pp. 142-161.
"Learning, Convergence and Stability with Multiple Rational Expectations Equilibria" (with Seppo Honkapohja), European Economic Review, Vol. 38, 1994, pp. 1071-1098.
"Expectational Stability and Adaptive Learning: An Introduction" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Ch. 4 in Learning and Rationality in Economics (A. Kirman and M. Salmon, Eds.,), 1995, Basil Blackwell: Oxford, pp. 102-126.
"Increasing Social Returns, Learning and Bifurcation Phenomena" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Ch. 7 in Learning and Rationality in Economics (A. Kirman and M. Salmon, Eds.,), 1995, Basil Blackwell: Oxford, pp. 216-235.
"Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Econometrica, Vol. 63, No. 1, 1995, pp. 195-206.
"Expectation Calculation, Hyperinflation and Currency Collapse" (with Garey Ramey), in The New Macroeconomics: Imperfect Markets and Policy Effectiveness, ed. Huw Dixon and Neil Rankin, Cambridge University Press, 1995, Ch. 15, 307-336.
"Least Squares Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economics Letters, Vol. 53, No. 2, Nov. 1996, 197-201.
"Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 65, Jan. 1998, 23-44.
"Calculation, Adaptation and Rational Expectations" (with Garey Ramey), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 2, 1998, pp. 156-182.
"Growth Cycles" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Paul Romer), American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No.3, June 1998, pp. 495-515.
"Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Mathematical Economics. Vol. 30, 1998, pp.59-86.
"Stochastic Gradient Learning in the Cobweb Model" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economics Letters, Vol. 61, 1998, pp. 333-337.
"Learning Dynamics" (with Seppo Honkapohja), chapter 7 of the Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol.1, eds. J. Taylor and M. Woodford, 1999, North-Holland, pp.449-542.
"Convergence of Difference Equations with Vanishing Time-Dependence, with Applications to Adaptive Learning" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economic Theory, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2000, pp. 717-725.
"Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Ramon Marimon), Macroeconomics Dynamics, Vol. 5, 2001, pp. 1-31.
"Expectations in Macroeconomics: Adaptive vs. Eductive
Learning," Revue Economique, Vol.
52, No. 3, May 2001, pp. 573-582.
"Coordination on Saddle Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Univariate Models" (with Roger Guesnerie), Macroeconomics Dynamics, Vol. 7, 2003, 42-62.
“Introduction to the Special Issue: Coordination in Dynamic Expectations Models: Learning and Sunspots” (with Roger Guesnerie), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 7, 2003, 3-6.
"Existence
of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady
State" (with Seppo
"Expectational
Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear
Model" (with Seppo
"Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 50, 550-566.
“Expectations
and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies” (with Seppo
"Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 35, 2003, 1045-72.
"Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia" (with Bruce McGough), Economic Letters, Vol. 87, 2005, 1-7.
"Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 8, 2005, 303-323.
"Stable Sunspot Equilibria in Models with Predetermined Variables" (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 29, 2005, 6001-625.
"Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies" (with Bruce McGough), Contributions to Macroeconomics: Vol. 5: No. 1, 2005.
"Coordination on Saddle Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models" (with Roger Guesnerie), Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 124, 2005, 202-229.
"Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning" (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 29, 2005, 1809-1840.
"Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation" (with William A. Branch), Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 127, 2006, 264-295.
"A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model" (with William A. Branch), Economics Letters, Vol. 91, 2006, 158-166.
"Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment" (with Seppo
"Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique" (with Garey Ramey), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 53, 2006, 249-264.
"Are Hyperinflationary Paths Learnable" (with Klaus Adam and Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 30, 2725-2748.
"The E-Correspondence Principle" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economica, Vol. 74, 2007, 33-50.
"Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Ramon Marimon), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, Vol. 7: Iss.1 (Advances), Article 3.
"Model Uncertainty with Endogenous Volatility" (with William Branch), Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 10, 2007, 207-237.
"Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules" (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 39, 2007, 1335-1356.
"Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of
Prices" (with Seppo
"Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off" (with William Branch, John Carlson and Bruce McGough), forthcoming Economic Journal.
“Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-Rational Exuberance” (with James Bullard and Seppo Honkapohja), forthcoming American Economic Review.
“Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules” (with Seppo Honkapohja).
"Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation" (with
Eran Guse and Seppo
"Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning" (with Seppo
“A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance,” (with James Bullard and Seppo Honkapohja).
"Representations and Sunspot Stability" (with Bruce McGough)
"Asset Return Dynamics and Learning" (with William A. Branch).
"Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots" (with Bruce McGough)
"Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?" (with Avik Chakraborty)
"Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning" (with Seppo
Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics (with Seppo Honkapohja), Princeton University Press, January 2001.
"Learning in Macroeconomics" (with Seppo Honkapohja), forthcoming in the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, second edition.
“Economics of Expectations” (with Seppo Honkapohja), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier Science, 2001.
Associate Editor, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, from January 1995.
Associate Editor, Macroeconomic Dynamics, from December 1996.
Board of Editors, American Economic Review, April 1991-April 1994.
Board of Advisors, Journal of Economic Surveys, from January 1995.
Advisory Board, Centre for
International Macroeconomics and Finance, University of Cambridge, since
November 2005.
Consultant, Centre for Labour Economics, LSE, 1988 - 1989.
Consultant, Financial Markets Group, LSE, 1990 - 1992.
Visiting Scholar/Consultant, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February-August 1992.
Distinguished Visitor, U.C. San Diego, March 1995.
Professor Invité, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Science Sociales, Paris, April
1996, June 2001.
Visiting Scholar/Consultant, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April
1997, April 2001.
Visiting Scholar/Consultant, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March
2002, April 2003, May 2004, September 2005, July 2006.
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 2003, September
2005, July 2006.
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, "Bounded Rationality and Macroeconomic Policy", SES-0617859, 2006-2009.
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, "Expectations, Learning and Economic Policy", SES-0136848, 2002-2005.
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, "Expectations and Economic Fluctuations", SBR-9617501, 1997-2000.
National Science Foundation Grant SES 92-10405, "Calculation Behavior and Bounded Rationality in Economic Models" (with Garey Ramey), 1992-1994.
European Community SPES Grant ERB4010PL900056, "Convergence of Learning Mechanisms in Dynamic Economic Models" (with S. Honkapohja), 1991-1994.
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, Grant No.8510763, "The Characterization of ARMA Solutions to General Linear Rational Expectations Models and an Analysis of their Expectational Stability", 1986-88.
Center for Economic Policy Research, Stanford, Principal Investigator, "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on the Distribution of Bottlenecks and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," 1985-87.
Courses currently or recently taught at the University of Oregon:
Macroeconomics Core course (First year Ph. D.)
Advanced Topics in Macroeconomics (Graduate Field Course)
Time Series Analysis (Graduate level)
Intermediate Macroeconomics (Undergraduate)
Other teaching experience:
Undergraduate: Econometrics, Forecasting, Applied macroeconomic analysis, Optimization and economic analysis, Macroeconomics principles, Problems of applied economics (macroeconomics).
Graduate: Macroeconomic core theory, Monetary theory, Advanced macroeconomic topics, Econometrics, Topics on expectations and learning in macroeconomics.
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