Recession Probabilities for Oregon

This page presents recession probabilities for the state of Oregon obtained from a markov-switching model applied to the Oregon coincident index of economic activity produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/stateindexes/index.html). Note that this index is tilted heavily toward labor market variables and the recession probabilities reported here are thus best thought of as probabilities of labor market recessions. For further details on the construction of this coincident index, see:

Crone, T.M. and A. Clayton-Matthews, (2005), “Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), pp. 593-603.

For details on the markov-switching model used to construct the probabilities, see:

Owyang, M.T., Piger, J.M. and Howard J. Wall, (2005), "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), pp. 604-16.

Recession probabilities are updated each time the Philadelphia Fed coincident indices are updated.

Recent Recession Probabilities for Oregon

Month	Probability of Recession
December 2007	0.3%
January 2008	1.2%
February 2008	12.8%
March 2008	43.5%
April 2008	48.5%
May 2008	56.9%

A Graph Showing Historical Recession Probabilities for Oregon

An Excel spreadsheet containing Historical Recession Probabilities for Oregon