U.S. Recession Probabilities

This page presents recession probabilities for the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:

Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

Recession probabilities are updated on the first day of each month.

Recent U.S. Recession Probabilities

Month	Probability of Recession
June 2009	74.3%
July 2009	11.8%
August 2009	7.1%
September 2009	5.9%
October 2009	5.2%
November 2009	4.5%

A Graph Showing Historical U.S. Recession Probabilities

An Excel spreadsheet containing Historical U.S. Recession Probabilities