Evaluating decisions -

1. Does it yield a good outcome?

But do good decisions always yield good outcomes?

Do bad decisions always yield bad outcomes?

Alt: Would it repeatedly yield a good outcome?

2. Is the decision rational?

(circular definition)

Why is it so hard to evaluate decisions?

1. Quality of decision depends on context

-- not just physical context, but variables contributing to psychological context

2. Role of uncertainty

-- hard to estimate likelihood of certain variables

-- many multiple uncertainties

-- probabilistic only

(even if we get certainty estimates exactly right, we don=t know what will happen for any one outcome)

General characteristics of good decision making:

1) sufficient search for alternatives

2) sufficient search for evidence supporting or refuting these alternatives

3) fair search and consideration of evidence

Why the focus on errors and biases?

- most interesting (surprised when we're wrong)

- most in need of being fixed

- allows us to see how things work

Keysar (1994)

restaurant Asarcasm@ study - demonstration of expectancy effects?