Psych 458 - Questions to ponder, 4/30/99
Plous, Chapters 12-15
1. What is Aconfusion of the inverse?@ Give an example of something for which this would make a big difference in probability estimates.
2. What is Bayes= theorem? (We will go over some exercises in class related to Bayes= theorem.)
3. Which do we think are more likely to happen, positive or negative outcomes?
4. How are our estimates of conjunctive events systematically biased? How can you use this to explain why complex projects always take longer than expected? How are our estimates of disjunctive events systematically biased?
5. What are the three dimensions of perceived risk identified by Slovic?
6. What are anchoring and adjustment? Do monetary incentives reduce anchoring effects? What about extreme anchors? Are we aware of how anchors influence our estimates?
7. A particular coincidence is very unlikely to occur, but coincidences happen all the time. Explain this paradox. How do Plous=s birthday examples illustrate this?
8. According to Hake and Hyman=s (1953) study (as cited in Plous), do people tend to over- or under-perceive patterns in a series of events? What helps people to correctly recognize a random pattern as random?
9. In order for a series to look random to people, does it have generally have more or fewer alternations than a genuinely random pattern would contain?
10. When assessing the covariation of events, what information do we tend to focus on? What information do we tend to overlook?
11. What is an illusory correlation? Under what circumstances are we likely to see one? Are professional clinicians immune from seeing illusory correlations?
12. What is an invisible correlation?
13. What circumstances facilitate being able to see the covariation of two variables? (Hint -- look for the reference to Nisbett and Ross.)
14. What is Acausalation?@ Is causation always present when there is a correlation? Are correlations always easily perceived when causation is present?
15. What have Langer and her colleagues found about our perceptions of our control over events? In what circumstances may these be perceptions be healthy?