Psych 458 - Questions to ponder, 5/19/99
Plous - Chapters 19-21
1. When are we more overconfident in our judgments, when we have a lot of information, or a little bit of information? Under what circumstances are we most overconfident? When (if ever) are we underconfident?
2. Does the promise of money in return for accuracy reduce overconfidence?
3. Plous cites juries that wrongly convicted defendants as an example of overconfidence. However, for this example to really support his case, what other set of trial outcomes does he need to discuss?
4. What does it mean to say someone is well-calibrated when talking about confidence? When systematically examining their records, do weather forecasters tend to be overconfident, underconfident or well-calibrated? Why might this be the case? What is the cultural belief about forecasters= accuracy? Why do you think this is the case?
5. Most research suggests that we are generally more likely to err on the side of being over rather than underconfident. Given this finding, could we correct our judgments by simply subtracting some constant amount of confidence? Why or why not? (In other words, does confidence increase as a function of accuracy, or are the two unrelated?) Why is this an important thing to know?
6. How can overconfidence be reduced? Which is more important in reducing overconfidence, generating supporting or opposing reasons for one=s judgment?
7. What is the confirmation bias? How does the letter/number card task (developed by Wason and Johnson-Laird) illustrate this bias? How does the confirmation bias manifest itself when we are asked to make judgments about people?
8. Is it easy to correct people=s tendency to show the confirmation bias? How can the confirmation bias be avoided?
9. What are the five traps in the Cross-Guyer taxonomy? Can you think of an example of each?
10. What are sunk-cost effects? How might the results of the Arkes and Blumer (1985) study be explained using cognitive dissonance? Self-perception theory? (If you need a refresher about these two theories, look back at Chapter 2).
11. What is the Aprisoner=s dilemma?@ What is the Atragedy of the commons?@ How are the two related?
12. What are the rules of a Adollar auction,@ and what usually happens? How is the dollar auction similar to the results found by Staw=s (1976) study of investment choices? Do you think Aentrapment@ (as Brockner and Rubin call these phenomena) is the result of cognitive bias, motivational bias, or both?
13. Is hanging on to an unrewarding Ainvestment@ more justifiable in a romantic relationship than in a financial one? Why or why not? (There is no Aright@ answer to this in the text -- just think about it). Do self-fulfilling prophecies play a larger role in one than the other?