Psych 458 - Questions to ponder
4/7/99 Plous Chs. 10 & 11
(Tversky & Kahneman, 1974 is optional)
1. In what way is the use of heuristics more effective than normative methods? In what way is their use less effective?
2. What is the representativeness heuristic? Can you think of an example?
3. Why, from a probability standpoint, is it that Linda (in Kahneman and Tversky=s ALinda problem@) cannot be MORE likely to be a feminist bankteller than simply a bankteller? Which option (feminist bankteller or bankteller) provides a better explanation of Linda=s life in your opinion? Do you think this problem is a good demonstration of the representativeness heuristic, people=s difficulty in understanding and applying probability, or both?
4. What is the Alaw of small numbers?@ Suppose the maternity wing of a hospital delivers 50% baby girls and 50% baby boys in a year. Should we be surprised if on one day they deliver 8 girls and no boys?
5. In what way is Arandom@ less random than most people expect? Can you provide illustrative examples? How do such presumptions about randomness increase our perception of the Ahot hand@ phenomenon?
6. Challenge question! Can you refine Gilovich et al.=s definition of the Ahot hand@ in such a way that the phenomenon might exist? How would you test this?
7. What does it mean to Aneglect@ a base rate? How is the lawyer/engineer problem like the ALinda@ problem?
8. If two variables are not correlated at all, regardless of the value of the first variable, what is your best guess for the value of the second variable? If two variables are not perfectly correlated, do people sufficiently adjust their estimates of the second variable to allow for regression towards the mean?
9. What is the availability heuristic? How does it affect our probability estimates?
10. What does imagining an outcome do to our judgment of its likelihood? How could you use this finding to your advantage? What are some limits to the imagination effect on likelihood?
11. Which is more effective in convincing people, base rates based on large numbers of people, or testimonials from a small number of people, or even just one person?
12. In what way does vividness have a Asleeper@ effect on judgments (i.e., not immediately evident, but grows in strength over time)?
13. What is anchoring?
14. Do the Tversky and Kahneman heuristics seem to be more cognitive or motivational biases?